Climate Change

What is climate change?

Our planet is surrounded by a blanket of gases which keeps the surface of the earth warm and able to sustain life. This blanket is getting thicker, trapping in heat as we release greenhouse gases by burning fossil fuels for energy and as we cut down forests and replace them with agricultural land. As a result, our climate is starting to change.

Scientific research indicates that, because of climate change, we may experience more intense and more frequent extreme weather events. A gradual increase in temperature also has major implications for ecosystems, growing seasons, animals and their habitats.

Some changes to the climate are inevitable - even if we stop emitting gases now, the gases we have already released will have an effect. However, we must do everything we can to avoid further changes and to adapt to the new situation we find ourselves in.

What is the 'climate'?

The term 'climate' normally describes the average weather we get over a long period of time. When our climate changes, the weather we experience locally day to day can also change.

Over the millions of years of the earth's existence, the climate has changed many times. However, when we use the term 'climate change' now, it is to describe shifts in temperature over approximately the last 100 years and the next 100 years or so.

What causes climate change?

There will always be some degree of uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However, there is now strong evidence and almost unanimous agreement that significant global warming is occurring. It is also likely that most of the recent warming can be attributed to human activities.

Natural causes

Some changes to the earth's climate are caused by the effects on each other of the sun, land, oceans and atmosphere. These often occur over very long periods of time.

Human causes

Human activity has changed the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in two important ways. First, we have cut down forests to develop land for agriculture. Trees absorb carbon dioxide so, with fewer trees, more carbon dioxide builds up in the atmosphere. Also, the agriculture that replaces the forests can often be a source of emissions.

Second, by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas for energy, we release greenhouse gases. Currently, burning fossil fuels emits about 6.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. Since before the industrial revolution, which began in the 18th century, concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased by 30 per cent.

What effects will climate change have?

Even if we stop burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests today, the world's climate will still warm in years to come. There is a time lag between when the emissions occur and when we begin to feel their effects, so we have yet to experience the impact of the greenhouse gas emissions from the last 30-40 years.

Scientists have identified some of the likely effects of this warming.

Rainfall

Some regions will experience more extreme rainfall while others will experience drought.

Sea level

The sea level could rise by more than 40 centimetres by the end of the century. There are two reasons for this. First, as the water in the oceans warms, it expands. Second, ice from the polar caps and from glaciers is melting into the sea. Rising sea levels will completely swamp some small, low-lying island states and put millions of people in low-lying areas at risk.

Water

There will be less water available for irrigation and drinking because there will be less rain, and salt from rising sea levels will contaminate ground water in coastal areas. Droughts are likely to be more frequent. Three billion more people could suffer increased water shortages by 2080. Northern Africa, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent will be the worst affected.

Harvest

As temperatures increase and rainfall patterns change, cereal crop yields are expected to drop significantly in Africa, the Middle East and India.

Disease

As temperatures increase, the areas that harbour diseases such as malaria, West Nile disease, dengue fever and river blindness will shift. It is predicted that 290 million additional people could be exposed to malaria by the 2080s, with China and Central Asia seeing the biggest increase in risk.

Rainforests

Higher temperatures and reduced rainfall could mean the loss of large areas of Brazilian and southern African rainforest - on top of the forest that we are cutting down to clear land for agriculture. These forests currently act as a 'sink' by absorbing large amounts of carbon dioxide which would otherwise be released into the atmosphere.

What can we do about climate change?

We can't stop the effects of the greenhouse gas emissions that have already taken place. But we can influence the future.

The majority of scientists agree that to avoid radical changes of temperature in the future, action is needed now.

Many believe that emissions of greenhouse gases, which are continuing to rise, must begin to decline over the next 10-20 years to avoid extreme changes to our climate.

Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas that causes climate change. Every tonne emitted into the atmosphere commits the world to more warming. But every tonne we avoid emitting helps reduce the risk.

The good news is there are lots of ways we can tackle climate change. Many of them will bring other benefits, such as new jobs, improved local environments and economic growth.

But the first step is to increase people's awareness and understanding of what's happening. Despite research showing that in the UK most people have heard of 'climate change' and 'global warming', the understanding of what causes climate change remains low.

Key climate facts

Big changes in the atmosphere

In just 200 years, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - the major gas that causes climate change - has increased by 30 per cent. Concentrations of greenhouse gases are now higher than at any point in the past 800,000 years.

Global temperature warming

Over the past century, average near-surface global temperatures have risen by 0.7°C.

Hot decade

The ten warmest years on record have all been since 1990. Six of the ten warmest years on record in the UK were between 1995 and 2004. In Europe, the August 2003 heatwave was probably the hottest for at least 500 years.

During August 2003, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK was taken in Brogdale in Kent. It was 38.5°C.

Between 4 and 13 August 2003, over 2,000 people in the UK died as a result of the heat.

Big increase in flood victims

The autumn and winter floods in 2000 in the UK were the worst for 270 years in some areas. Flooding on farmland cost the farming industry nearly £500 million.

Challenging myths

Lots of climate change myths or confusions still crop up in the media and in conversation. As a result, it is sometimes hard to separate fact from fiction and attitudes can prove difficult to change. Many popular myths are promoted that have little or no relationship to the truth. Here you can explore some of the most common misconceptions that arise during climate change discussions.

The climate is always changing

It is true that natural changes in the world's climate have happened in the past - but it is sometimes overlooked that in extreme cases this resulted in mass extinctions! What we are dealing with now is potentially a big change in our climate that we ourselves have caused.

Concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are now higher than they have been at any point in the last 800,000 years. Although this may not be new in relation to the history of the planet, it is entirely new in human history. It doesn't mean the world will end, but it could make the world such a hostile place that it cannot sustain life as we know it.

Climate change has no basis in science

Scientists have been thinking about the relationship between emissions of gases and our climate since as early as the 1800s. Much of the pressure on politicians to do something about climate change now actually comes from the scientists who can see serious changes ahead.

In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme got together to form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This body gathers together and assesses the best available peer-reviewed scientific and technical information on climate change from around the world. Hundreds of scientists from all parts of the world are involved. Their last report warned that average global temperatures could increase by up to 5.8°C by the end of this century.

In addition, in 2005, 11 national science academies of the G8 nations and Brazil, China and India sent an unprecedented message to global leaders stating their concerns about the need for action on climate change.

The statement stressed that the scientific understanding of climate change was now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action and called on world leaders to act.

Scientists who question whether climate change is happening are now few and far between. Some evidence used to question climate change - for e xample that changes are not verified by satellite recordings of temperature - have been shown to be wrong. Now these have been corrected, the evidence points in the same direction - that temperatures are increasing.

Human activity doesn't cause climate change

The majority of scientists are convinced that we are affecting the climate by the way that we live. The Hadley Centre is one of the world's foremost modellers of climate change. They recently looked at what the effect of natural changes in temperature would be compared with actual observed changes over the last 150 years. They found a mismatch. But when they added human effects to the natural effects, the match was very close.

This is not surprising; we know gases keep the earth warm and we know that concentrations of these gases are increasing. We emit greenhouse gases when we use energy from fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil or electricity generated from these fuels). We also change the balance of gases in our atmosphere when we cut down forests and replace them with agricultural land.

It's too late to make a difference

There are some changes that have happened already which cannot be reversed. However, by acting now, we can reduce the risk of big changes occurring to our climate and reduce the impacts that we and future generations will experience.

The last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicated that, if we could get greenhouse gas emissions to peak and then decline within the next 10-20 years, the risk of seeing temperature changes higher than 2° C would be greatly reduced.

This is an enormous challenge - but it can be done and that is why our goal is that together this generation will tackle climate change.

There's no point in me taking action

In fact, every reduction in emissions that takes place, no matter where it occurs, makes a difference by not adding to the risk. Also, some countries like the UK are in a great position to give a positive example to the rest of the world. We do need other countries to join in, but if we can show that we can rise to the challenge successfully and make a real difference, others will follow.

Climate change will make life more comfortable in the UK

True, climate change may lead to a warmer climate overall in the UK. But the climate may also be unpredictable and extreme, which will be unpleasant for many people. We may have warmer winters, but they are also likely to be wetter. And in the summer, excessive heat will cause problems for the elderly, the very young and those with health problems.

There's also the risk of rising sea levels and extreme weather events like storms and floods, which cause havoc to vulnerable areas. So tackling climate change and helping to secure a more stable climate for ourselves will make life a lot more comfortable for us all in the end.

Tackling climate change means making big sacrifices

Tackling climate change is not going to be easy, but it need not damage the economy as a whole. As we shift to new ways of using and creating energy, industry will have to adapt and jobs may change - but more may be created overall. Using less energy can also save companies and households money.
By investing in new energy technologies at home, we also help to reduce our reliance on imported sources of energy and can help prepare for when fossil fuels such as oil and gas start to run out.

Not tackling climate change has a price too. Since 1998, the cost of repairing the damage from extreme weather events and floods in the UK has increased by 60 per cent. The insurance industry is one of the first sectors of the economy to be feeling the economic effects of climate change.

A brief history of climate change

Now that climate change is in the news on an almost daily basis it is easy to think of it as something new. In fact, the first research that has helped us understand climate change dates back to the 18th century. However, it is only relatively recently that the full severity of the possible effects of climate change - and how urgently we need to act - have emerged.

The timeline here pinpoints some of the key moments in the development of our understanding of climate change over the last 250 years.

1753
CARBON DIOXIDE: Joseph Black discovers carbon dioxide by treating limestone (calcium carbonate) and 'magnesia alba' (magnesium carbonate) with acids. Black gives the name 'fixed air' to the gas he discovers. He later finds that 'fixed air' is present in the atmosphere, is produced during the fermentation of beer, and is contained in air exhaled by humans.

1827
GREENHOUSE EFFECT: Jean-Baptiste Fourier suggests the existence of an atmospheric effect keeping the earth warmer than it would otherwise be. He uses the analogy of a greenhouse.

1896
GLOBAL WARMING: Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, advances the theory that carbon dioxide emissions from combustion of coal would enhance the earth's greenhouse effect and lead to global warming.

1900
POPULATION: There are 1.6 billion Homo sapiens on the planet.

1924
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE: Based on 1920 coal use, Lotka, a US physicist, speculates that industrial activity will double atmospheric carbon dioxide in 500 years.

1950
POPULATION: The population of the world is 2.5 billion.

1967
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE WARNING: The first reliable computer simulation calculates that global average temperature may increase by more than 4°F when the atmospheric carbon dioxide level reaches double that of pre-industrial times.

1969
VISION OF EARTH: Astronauts walk on the moon and send back pictures of the earth from space.

1975
POPULATION: The population of the world reaches 4 billion.

1979
CLIMATE CHANGE WARNING: The report of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) panel on climate change advises that 'A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late' to avoid significant climate changes.

1979
FIRST WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE: Adopts climate change as major issue and calls on governments 'to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate'.

1987
ICE-CORE EVIDENCE: An ice core from Antarctica analysed by French and Russian scientists reveals an extremely close correlation between carbon dioxide levels and temperature going back more than 100,000 years.

1987
WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD: The 1980s turn out to be the warmest decade, with seven of the eight warmest years recorded up to 1990. Even the coldest years in the 1980s were warmer than the warmest years of the 1880s.

1988
UNITED NATIONS TAKES ACTION: The United Nations sets up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyse and report on scientific findings.

1990
POPULATION: The population of the world is 5.26 billion.

1990
EVIDENCE OF WARMING: The first report of the IPCC finds that the planet has warmed by 0.5°C in the past century. The IPCC warns that only strong measures to halt rising greenhouse gas emissions will prevent serious global warming.

1992
CLIMATE CHANGE AT RIO EARTH SUMMIT: The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed by 154 nations in Rio de Janeiro, agrees to prevent 'dangerous' warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialised countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000. President George Bush signs on behalf of the United States.

1994
CLIMATE CONVENTION RATIFIED: On 21 March 1994, the FCCC, which was signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, comes into force. To date, it has been ratified by 181 countries.

1995
THE HEAT IS ON: Hottest year yet.

1996
CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSES AND IMPACTS: The Second Annual Conference of the Parties (CoP 2) is held in Geneva and endorses the IPCC finding of a 'discernible human influence on global climate' and that 'projected change in climate will result in significant, often adverse, impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors, including food supply and water resources and on human health'.

1997
KYOTO PROTOCOL: The Kyoto Protocol agrees legally binding emissions cuts for industrialised nations, averaging 5.5 per cent, to be met by 2010.

1999
HOTTEST DECADE IN 1,000 YEARS: Scientists, reconstructing the global climate for the last 1,000 years, using weather records, tree rings, coral and ice-core readings, declare that the decade of the 1990s is the hottest in the last millennium.

2000
POPULATION: The population of the world is just over 6 billion.

2001
KYOTO PROTOCOL SIGNED: On 27 July, 178 countries give life to the Kyoto Protocol.

2001
EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE MOUNTS: United Nations weather agency reports that 2001 is the second hottest year in the 140 years that meteorologists have been keeping records. Nine of the ten warmest years since 1860 have occurred since 1990, the agency said, and temperatures are rising three times as fast as in the early 1900s.

2002
HOT ENOUGH FOR YOU?: Since 1980, the earth has experienced 19 of its 20 hottest years on record, with 2002 the second hottest ever recorded, and 1998 the hottest.

2003
HOW HOT IS TOO HOT?: Globally it is the third hottest year on record, but Europe experiences the hottest summer for at least 500 years, with an estimated 30,000 fatalities as a result. Extreme weather costs an estimated record of $60 billion this year.

2003
EXTREME WEATHER: Agence France-Presse reports that 13 million trees have been damaged in a freak snowstorm in Beijing.

2005
POPULATION: The population of the world is 6.45 billion.

2005
FEELING THE HEAT: The New York Times reports that a NASA study finds that 2004 was the fourth warmest year on record.

2005
KYOTO PROTOCOL RATIFIED: 16 February. On the 90th day after at least 55 Parties to the Convention (responsible for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990) deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession, the Kyoto Protocol came into force.

2005
G8 LEADERS ACT: At the G8 Gleneagles summit in July 2005, climate change is one of the two main issues addressed by leaders of the eight largest industrial nations, along with invited developing nations. The other issue is poverty in Africa.
UK climate change

This map depicts the countries that have ratified or signed the Kyoto Protocol as of June 2003.  Ratifying countries are indicated in green.  Those countries that have signed, but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol are indicated in dotted yellow.  Those countries that have neither signed nor ratified the agreement are depicted in red.

 

 

What does climate change mean for us here in the UK?

The evidence for climate change in the UK comes from weather records extending back over 350 years. From these, it's clear that the 1990s were the warmest decade in central England since records began in the 1660s. Coastal waters have also warmed, changing the distribution of important commercial fish species and other marine animals.

A range of effects

A variety of other changes to the UK climate include:

· The growing season for plants in central England is now a month longer than it was in 1900.
· Summer heatwaves are occurring more frequently, and in winter there are fewer frosts.
· Compared with 50 years ago, we now get more rain and snow, and on fewer days - so they are even heavier.
· Average sea level around the UK is now about 10cm higher than it was in 1900.

Find out more

To find out more about climate change and its impacts in the UK, go to the UK Climate Impacts Programme website where you can also find out about climate change and your region.

 Climate models predict the sea levels will rise and flooding will increase. In the worst case scenario, this could lead to a great deal of land in the UK becoming uninhabitable.  Can you work out where Derbyshire Dales would be on this map?